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Agile Estimation: Why The Fibonacci Sequence Works

Target Audience
Engineering Manager
Type
Article
Link
https://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/why-the-fibonacci-sequence-works-well-for-estimating
Date Added
May 30, 2021 11:17 PM
Language
English
AI summary

The Fibonacci sequence effectively aids in agile estimation by providing distinct numerical values that help teams make clearer distinctions in their estimates. Using either the traditional Fibonacci sequence or a modified version enhances the ability to differentiate between similar tasks, as numbers that are too close together can complicate the estimation process. For example, the modified Fibonacci sequence includes values such as 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, and 100, which allows teams to avoid confusion when estimating tasks. Key Points: - Fibonacci sequence: Traditional (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and modified (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100) sequences used in Planning Poker. - Distinct estimates: Close numbers in estimation can lead to confusion; clearer distinctions improve accuracy. - Enhanced clarity: Modified Fibonacci helps teams to make more effective estimations by reducing ambiguity.

Why it matters for leaders?

This article is crucial for Engineering Leaders as it addresses the challenge of accurate estimation in project planning, which is vital for resource allocation and timeline management. An actionable takeaway is to adopt a modified Fibonacci sequence for estimates to enhance clarity and differentiation among task complexities.

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If you’ve estimated with Planning Poker, you may very well have used cards with either the Fibonacci sequence, or a modified Fibonacci sequence.

The traditional Fibonacci sequence is 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on, with each number the sum of the preceding numbers.

Years ago I began having teams estimate with a modified Fibonacci sequence of 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40 and 100.

Why?

It’s because numbers that are too close to one another are impossible to distinguish as estimates.